← Back to Blog

The Technology That Will Decide Taiwan: Autonomous Systems, AI Targeting, and the New Warfare

November 5, 2025•18 min read•By Defender of the West BTH

The Future of Warfare:

If China invades Taiwan, it won't be won by who has more ships or missiles. It will be won by who has better autonomous drones, faster AI targeting, and more resilient command networks. The companies building these systems today—Anduril, Palantir, Shield AI—are determining the outcome of conflicts that haven't happened yet.

The Lesson Ukraine Taught the Pentagon

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with what Western analysts called "the second-best military in the world." Conventional wisdom predicted Kyiv would fall in 72 hours. Instead, Ukrainian forces—equipped with commercial drones, Starlink internet, and Javelin missiles—stopped the invasion cold.

What changed? Not the size of armies. Not nuclear weapons. Not even advanced fighter jets.

Small, cheap, autonomous systems defeated expensive, crewed platforms.

Ukrainian operators flying $500 DJI consumer drones with grenades attached destroyed $5 million Russian tanks. Switchblade loitering munitions hunted Russian artillery positions autonomously. Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones— costing $5 million each—destroyed Russian air defense systems worth $100 million+.

The kill ratio was unprecedented: For every dollar Ukraine spent on drones, Russia lost $100+ in armored vehicles, artillery, and personnel.

This is the warfare model that will decide Taiwan. Not carrier battle groups slugging it out. Not tank divisions crossing beaches. Swarms of autonomous drones, AI-powered targeting, and distributed command networks overwhelming traditional military forces.

Why Traditional Platforms Are Obsolete

For 80 years, military power was measured by platforms: How many aircraft carriers? How many fighter jets? How many tanks?

This model is dying. Here's why:

The Cost Asymmetry Problem

Traditional platforms are getting more expensive while threats get cheaper:

Meanwhile, threats are getting absurdly cheap:

The math is unsustainable. If it costs $80 million to build an F-35 but only $10 million to kill it with a missile, you can't win by building more F-35s. The attacker will always overwhelm you with cheap munitions.

The Crewed Platform Vulnerability

Every traditional platform has the same fatal weakness: humans inside.

When you put a pilot in an F-35, you're not just building a fighter jet—you're building a life support system:

Autonomous systems don't have these constraints. They can:

The future isn't 100 F-35s fighting 100 J-20s. It's 1,000 autonomous drones overwhelming air defenses while crewed aircraft stay safely outside missile range.

The Three Technologies That Will Decide Taiwan

1. Autonomous Drone Swarms

What they are: Networks of small, cheap, AI-powered drones that operate independently or in coordinated swarms.

Why they matter for Taiwan:

If China launches an amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait, they need to move hundreds of thousands of troops on vulnerable transport ships through 100 miles of water. Traditional defense requires Taiwanese pilots flying F-16s to sink those ships—but Chinese air defenses will shoot down F-16s quickly.

Autonomous drone solution:

Who's building this:

Key insight: Ukraine proved this model works. Cheap Turkish TB2 drones destroyed hundreds of Russian armored vehicles in first weeks of war. Taiwan + US are now mass-producing similar systems specifically for Taiwan Strait scenario.

2. AI-Powered Targeting and Decision Systems

What it is: Artificial intelligence that analyzes battlefield data in real-time, identifies threats, recommends targets, and accelerates decision-making from hours to seconds.

Why it matters for Taiwan:

Modern warfare moves at machine speed. In a Taiwan scenario:

Human decision-making is too slow. By the time intelligence analysts identify a missile launch, brief commanders, get authorization to respond, and execute countermeasures—the target is already destroyed.

AI solution:

But AI targeting goes far beyond missile defense. It enables:

Who's building this:

Real-world impact: US used AI targeting in strikes against Iranian proxies in Syria. Time from intelligence to strike: hours instead of days. This speed advantage is decisive in fast-moving conflicts.

3. Resilient Communication Networks (Mesh Networks + Starlink)

What it is: Communication systems that can't be jammed, hacked, or destroyed by attacking a single central node.

Why it matters for Taiwan:

China's war plan for Taiwan starts with decapitation strikes: Destroy Taiwan's command centers, communications infrastructure, and government leadership in first 30 minutes. If Taiwan's military can't communicate, it can't coordinate defense—even if individual units are still combat-capable.

Traditional military communications are centralized and vulnerable:

Resilient network solution:

Starlink mesh networking:

Mesh radio networks:

Result: Even if China destroys Taiwan's Ministry of Defense headquarters in first strike, battalion commanders can still coordinate via Starlink. Artillery units can still receive targeting data. Missile batteries can still communicate with radar stations.

Decapitation strikes fail when there's no head to cut off.

Ukraine case study: In first days of invasion, Russia destroyed most Ukrainian command centers and communications towers. Ukraine switched to Starlink terminals (delivered by SpaceX) and maintained command/control throughout war. This resilience prevented Russian victory in 2022.

How These Technologies Work Together: The Taiwan Defense Scenario

Let's walk through how autonomous systems, AI targeting, and resilient networks combine to defend Taiwan:

Day 1: Chinese Invasion Begins

6:00 AM - Chinese missiles strike Taiwan

7:00 AM - Chinese amphibious fleet departs

8:00 AM - Autonomous drone swarms launch

9:00 AM - Chinese air defenses engage

9:30 AM - Invasion fleet crippled

10:00 AM - AI battle damage assessment

Result: China's invasion failed not because Taiwan had better missiles or more ships. It failed becauseTaiwan had better software, better AI, and communication networks that couldn't be destroyed.

Why China Can't Replicate This (Yet)

China is desperately trying to build equivalent autonomous systems and AI. But they face fundamental problems:

1. Semiconductor Disadvantage

AI requires cutting-edge chips. The best AI chips (NVIDIA H100, Google TPU, etc.) are made using:

China's best domestic chip manufacturing (SMIC) is stuck at 7nm process—two generations behind. This means Chinese AI runs slower, uses more power, and requires larger form factors. You can't put a Chinese AI chip that requires 500 watts into a small kamikaze drone. American chips do the same computation at 50 watts.

2. Software and AI Talent Drain

The best AI researchers don't want to work for authoritarian governments. They want to work at:

Chinese AI development is constrained by:

3. No Equivalent to Starlink

China is trying to build competing satellite networks (Guowang, G60), but they're years behind:

More importantly, SpaceX can launch satellites cheaper and faster than anyone (Falcon 9 reusability). China still uses expendable rockets at 5-10x the cost per launch. This means Starlink can replenish destroyed satellites faster than China can destroy them.

The Implications: Why This Matters Beyond Taiwan

The End of Platform-Centric Warfare

For 80 years, military power meant platforms: carriers, jets, tanks. That era is ending.

The new measure of military power:

This is why defense tech startups matter more than traditional defense contractors:

In a Taiwan scenario, the side that can produce 10,000 drones in 6 months wins. The side that takes 3 years to replace a lost F-35 loses.

The Deterrence Value

Here's the paradox: The better these defensive technologies work, the less likely China invades at all.

If Chinese military planners war-game a Taiwan invasion and conclude:

...then invasion becomes unthinkable. Not because they lack courage, but because they lack any realistic path to victory.

This is why Anduril, Palantir, and Shield AI aren't just building cool technology. They're building the deterrence that prevents World War III.

What Needs to Happen Now

The technology exists. Ukraine proved it works. But the US and Taiwan need to move faster:

1. Mass Production of Autonomous Systems

2. Accelerate AI Targeting Deployment

3. Harden Taiwan's Networks

4. Recruit and Train Talent

The limiting factor isn't money or technology—it's people who can build these systems.

Defense tech companies are hiring aggressively:

These aren't just jobs. These are opportunities to build the technology that prevents World War III.

If you have technical skills and want to work on the most important problem of our generation, here's how to break into defense tech.

Conclusion: Software Eats Warfare

Marc Andreessen famously said "software is eating the world." In 2025, software is eating warfare.

The outcome of a Taiwan invasion won't be determined by who has more ships or who has bigger missiles. It will be determined by:

Right now, the United States and its allies have a decisive advantage in all four areas. But that advantage isn't permanent. China is investing hundreds of billions to close the gap.

The question is whether we move fast enough to make invasion unthinkable before China develops equivalent capabilities.

Ukraine showed us the blueprint. The technology exists. The companies building it are hiring. The Pentagon is (slowly) buying.

Now we need to execute before 2027.

Further Reading: