Understanding CCP Military Strategy: What the West Must Know

By Defender of the West BTH • January 2025 • 12 min read

In my previous article, I outlined why the West needs defenders. Now it's time to understand exactly what we're defending against. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone the most dramatic military transformation in modern history, and most Americans have no idea what China has built—or why it matters.

This isn't speculation or fear-mongering. This is documented Chinese military doctrine, backed by hundreds of billions in annual spending, visible in satellite imagery, and explicitly stated by Chinese leadership. Understanding CCP military strategy isn't optional— it's essential for anyone who wants to grasp the defining conflict of our era.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Let's start with scale. China's official defense budget has grown from approximately $20 billion in 2000 to over $230 billion in 2024. That's more than a 10x increase in just over two decades. But here's what most analyses miss: the official number severely understates actual spending.

When you account for:

• Research and development conducted outside the defense budget
• Paramilitary forces (People's Armed Police)
• Defense-related infrastructure spending
• Space program military applications
• Purchasing power parity adjustments

The real number is likely $350-400 billion annually. That's approaching US defense spending levels, but in an authoritarian system with no transparency, no democratic oversight, and labor costs that are a fraction of American wages.

In other words: China gets more military capability per dollar, and they're spending a lot of dollars.

The Strategic Intent: It's Written Down

Xi Jinping has been remarkably clear about Chinese ambitions. In 2017, at the 19th Party Congress, he outlined a timeline that should alarm anyone who values a free and open Indo-Pacific:

• By 2027: "Mechanization will be basically achieved, informatization will have made major progress, and strategic capabilities will have seen a big improvement." Translation: PLA modernization largely complete.
• By 2035: "Modernization of national defense and the military will be basically completed." Translation: Capable of regional hegemony.
• By 2049: "The people's armed forces will be fully transformed into world-class forces." Translation: Global military parity with the United States.

This isn't vague aspiration. It's a published roadmap. The CCP has committed the resources, organizational will, and strategic focus to achieve these goals. And they're on track.

Anti-Access/Area Denial: The Core Strategy

The centerpiece of PLA strategy is what military analysts call Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD). The concept is elegant in its simplicity:

Make it so costly and risky for the US military to operate near China that America won't intervene when China acts against Taiwan, Japan, or other regional objectives.

How do you deny a superpower access to an entire region? You build layered defenses that threaten American assets at every stage:

Layer 1: Strike US Bases

China has deployed thousands of conventional ballistic and cruise missiles capable of hitting US bases in Japan, South Korea, and Guam. The DF-26 "Guam Killer" missile has a range of 2,500+ miles and can strike with precision.

In a conflict scenario, these missiles would target:

• Airfields and runways (cratering them to prevent aircraft operations)
• Fuel depots and ammunition storage
• Command and control facilities
• Port facilities

This is why the US is now pursuing "agile combat employment"—distributing forces across more locations to reduce vulnerability. But the fundamental problem remains: fixed bases are sitting ducks against precision strike.

Layer 2: Sink US Carriers

Aircraft carriers are the foundation of American power projection. China has developed multiple systems specifically designed to threaten them:

• DF-21D and DF-26 Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBMs): The world's first operational "carrier killers." Maneuverable warheads that can strike moving ships at sea.
• Submarine Force: China operates over 60 submarines, including increasingly quiet nuclear-powered attack subs equipped with advanced torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles.
• Air-Launched Anti-Ship Missiles: The YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship missile carried by H-6 bombers, capable of saturation attacks.

The result: US carriers can no longer operate with impunity near Chinese shores. They must stand off at greater distances, which reduces the effectiveness of their air wings.

Layer 3: Achieve Air Superiority

The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) has transformed from a backwards force flying Soviet-era aircraft to one of the world's most capable air arms:

• J-20 Stealth Fighter: China's answer to the F-22 and F-35. Over 200 already in service, with production ramping up.
• Modern 4th Generation Fighters: J-10C and J-16 fighters equipped with AESA radars and advanced missiles.
• Integrated Air Defense: S-400 systems (imported from Russia) and indigenous HQ-9 long-range SAMs creating overlapping coverage.

In a Taiwan scenario, China would have the advantage of proximity—their aircraft operate from mainland bases, while US fighters must fly from carriers or distant bases, limiting time over target.

Layer 4: Dominate the Electromagnetic Spectrum

Modern warfare is fought as much in cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum as in physical domains. China has invested heavily in:

• Electronic Warfare: Systems to jam or deceive US radars, GPS, and communications
• Cyber Capabilities: Pre-positioned malware in US critical infrastructure and military networks
• Counter-Space Weapons: Anti-satellite missiles and directed-energy weapons to blind US reconnaissance and communications satellites

The 2007 Chinese ASAT test—where China destroyed one of its own satellites—was a clear message: US space-based assets are vulnerable. Since then, China has conducted multiple tests of co-orbital satellites capable of approaching and potentially interfering with other spacecraft.

The Taiwan Scenario: Why It Matters

All of this capability is aimed at one primary objective: reunification with Taiwan, by force if necessary. Understanding why Taiwan matters is essential.

Semiconductors: The Linchpin of Modern Civilization

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) produces approximately 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors. These chips power:

• Every iPhone, high-end Android phone, and modern laptop
• Advanced AI training systems
• Modern automobiles (which contain hundreds of chips)
• 5G infrastructure
• Advanced weapons systems

If China controlled Taiwan—and therefore TSMC—it would have leverage over the entire global economy. It's not an exaggeration to say that modern civilization runs on TSMC chips.

The First Island Chain: Geographic Strategy

Taiwan sits in the middle of the "First Island Chain"—a string of islands from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines that forms a natural barrier containing China's naval forces. If China controlled Taiwan, it would break this chain and gain:

• Direct access to the Pacific Ocean for its submarine fleet
• Ability to threaten Japan and the Philippines
• Control over critical sea lanes
• Forward positions for further expansion

The Credibility Question

If the United States fails to defend Taiwan, what message does that send to:

• Japan, which relies on American security guarantees?
• South Korea, which faces threats from the North?
• The Philippines, Australia, and other regional allies?
• NATO allies in Europe watching how America responds?

The fall of Taiwan wouldn't be an isolated event. It would signal the end of the US-led security order in Asia, with cascading effects worldwide. Allies would seek accommodation with China. Adversaries would sense weakness and opportunity.

The Timeline: When Could China Act?

US military leadership has repeatedly warned about a narrow window of vulnerability. Admiral Phil Davidson, then-commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, testified in 2021 that China could attempt to take Taiwan within six years—by 2027.

Why 2027? Several factors converge:

• PLA Modernization: Xi's stated goal for the PLA to complete modernization by 2027, giving China the capability to conduct complex joint operations.
• Xi's Political Calendar: Xi will be 74 in 2027. If he wants to achieve reunification as his legacy, the window is narrowing.
• US Capability Gap: The US Navy is still building up its fleet and readiness after years of deferred maintenance. China's advantage is maximal now, before US countermeasures fully materialize.
• Domestic Pressure: Chinese economic growth is slowing. External nationalist victories can offset internal discontent.

This doesn't mean war is inevitable in 2027. But it means the possibility is real, and the window of maximum danger is now through 2030.

What the West Must Do

Understanding CCP military strategy is step one. Now comes the harder part: responding effectively. This requires action across multiple domains:

1. Military Deterrence

• Forward Presence: Maintain and enhance US military presence in the Indo-Pacific, including more distributed basing.
• Allied Capabilities: Help Japan, Australia, and other allies develop robust defensive capabilities, particularly in anti-ship missiles, air defense, and submarines.
• Taiwan Defense: Accelerate weapons sales and training for Taiwan's military. Focus on asymmetric capabilities: anti-ship missiles, mines, mobile air defense.
• New Capabilities: Invest in capabilities that negate Chinese advantages—hypersonic weapons, directed energy, autonomous systems, AI-enabled decision superiority.

2. Economic and Technology Competition

• Semiconductor Independence: The CHIPS Act is a start, but we need massive investment in domestic chip manufacturing. Taiwan's vulnerability is America's vulnerability.
• Technology Export Controls: Prevent transfer of critical dual-use technologies—AI, quantum computing, advanced semiconductors—to China.
• Supply Chain Resilience: Reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing for critical goods, especially defense-related items.
• Allied Coordination: Work with Europe, Japan, and other democracies to present a united front on technology transfer and investment screening.

3. Defense Innovation

This is where companies like Palantir, Anduril, and future defense technology startups become critical. The Pentagon cannot innovate fast enough through traditional procurement. We need:

• AI-enabled targeting and decision systems
• Autonomous unmanned systems (air, sea, undersea)
• Advanced sensors and data fusion
• Cyber and electronic warfare capabilities
• Space-based intelligence and communications

Speed matters. China is moving fast. Our innovation cycle must be faster.

4. Public Awareness

Most Americans don't understand what's at stake in the Indo-Pacific. Most don't know what Taiwan produces or why it matters. Most couldn't explain CCP military strategy or the timeline we're facing.

Democratic societies cannot sustain long-term strategic competition without public support. Education matters. Awareness matters. Content like this matters.

Conclusion: The Stakes Could Not Be Higher

Understanding CCP military strategy isn't an academic exercise. It's the foundation for understanding the defining challenge of our era: whether free societies have the will and capability to defend themselves against authoritarian expansion.

China has published the playbook. They've committed the resources. They're building the capabilities. The timeline is narrowing.

The question is whether the West will respond with matching seriousness, urgency, and strategic clarity. Or whether we'll wake up one day to find that the window of opportunity has closed, and the balance of power has shifted irreversibly.

The choice is ours. But the clock is ticking.